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CCGS Skill Testing Framework/skills/analysis/estimate.md
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CCGS Skill Testing Framework/skills/analysis/estimate.md
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# Skill Test Spec: /estimate
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## Skill Summary
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`/estimate` estimates task or story effort using a relative-size scale (S / M /
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L / XL) based on story complexity, acceptance criteria count, and historical
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sprint velocity from past sprint files. Estimates are advisory and are never
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written automatically. No director gates are invoked. Verdicts are effort ranges,
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not pass/fail — every run produces an estimate.
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---
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## Static Assertions (Structural)
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Verified automatically by `/skill-test static` — no fixture needed.
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- [ ] Has required frontmatter fields: `name`, `description`, `argument-hint`, `user-invocable`, `allowed-tools`
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- [ ] Has ≥2 phase headings
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- [ ] Contains size labels: S, M, L, XL (the "verdict" equivalents for this skill)
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- [ ] Does NOT require "May I write" language (advisory output only)
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- [ ] Has a next-step handoff (how to use the estimate in sprint planning)
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---
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## Director Gate Checks
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None. Estimation is an advisory informational skill; no gates are invoked.
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---
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## Test Cases
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### Case 1: Happy Path — Clear story with known tech stack
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**Fixture:**
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- `production/epics/combat/story-hitbox-detection.md` exists with:
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- 4 clear Acceptance Criteria
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- ADR reference (Accepted status)
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- No "unknown" or "TBD" language in story body
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- `production/sprints/sprint-003.md` through `sprint-005.md` exist with velocity data
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- Tech stack is GDScript (well-understood by team per sprint history)
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**Input:** `/estimate production/epics/combat/story-hitbox-detection.md`
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**Expected behavior:**
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1. Skill reads the story file — assesses clarity, AC count, tech stack
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2. Skill reads sprint history to determine average velocity
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3. Skill outputs estimate: M (1–2 days) with reasoning
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4. No files are written
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**Assertions:**
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- [ ] Estimate is M for a clear, well-scoped story with known tech
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- [ ] Reasoning references AC count, tech stack familiarity, and velocity data
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- [ ] Estimate is presented as a range (e.g., "1–2 days"), not a single point
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- [ ] No files are written
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---
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### Case 2: High Uncertainty — Unknown system, no ADR yet
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**Fixture:**
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- `production/epics/online/story-lobby-matchmaking.md` exists with:
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- 2 vague Acceptance Criteria (using "should" and "TBD")
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- No ADR reference — matchmaking architecture not yet decided
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- References new subsystem ("online/matchmaking") with no existing source files
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**Input:** `/estimate production/epics/online/story-lobby-matchmaking.md`
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**Expected behavior:**
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1. Skill reads story — finds vague AC, no ADR, no existing source
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2. Skill flags multiple uncertainty factors
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3. Estimate is L–XL with an explicit risk note: "Estimate range is wide due to architectural unknowns"
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4. Skill recommends creating an ADR before development begins
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**Assertions:**
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- [ ] Estimate is L or XL (not S or M) when significant unknowns exist
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- [ ] Risk note explains the specific unknowns driving the wide range
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- [ ] Output recommends resolving architectural questions first
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- [ ] No files are written
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---
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### Case 3: No Sprint Velocity Data — Conservative defaults used
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**Fixture:**
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- Story file exists and is well-defined
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- `production/sprints/` is empty — no historical sprints
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**Input:** `/estimate production/epics/core/story-save-load.md`
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**Expected behavior:**
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1. Skill reads story — assesses complexity
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2. Skill attempts to read sprint velocity data — finds none
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3. Skill notes: "No sprint history found — using conservative defaults for velocity"
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4. Estimate is produced using default assumptions (e.g., 1 story point = 1 day)
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5. No files are written
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**Assertions:**
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- [ ] Skill does not error when no sprint history exists
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- [ ] Output explicitly notes that conservative defaults are being used
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- [ ] Estimate is still produced (not blocked by missing velocity)
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- [ ] Conservative defaults produce a higher (not lower) estimate range
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---
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### Case 4: Multiple Stories — Each estimated individually plus sprint total
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**Fixture:**
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- User provides a sprint file: `production/sprints/sprint-007.md` with 4 stories
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- Sprint history exists (3 previous sprints)
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**Input:** `/estimate production/sprints/sprint-007.md`
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**Expected behavior:**
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1. Skill reads sprint file — identifies 4 stories
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2. Skill estimates each story individually: S, M, M, L
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3. Skill computes sprint total: approximately 6–8 story points
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4. Skill presents per-story estimates followed by sprint total
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5. No files are written
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**Assertions:**
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- [ ] Each story receives its own estimate label
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- [ ] Sprint total is presented after individual estimates
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- [ ] Total is a sum range derived from individual ranges
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- [ ] Skill handles sprint files (not just single story files) as input
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---
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### Case 5: Gate Compliance — No gate; estimates are informational
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**Fixture:**
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- Story file exists with medium complexity
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- `review-mode.txt` contains `full`
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**Input:** `/estimate production/epics/core/story-item-pickup.md`
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**Expected behavior:**
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1. Skill reads story and sprint history; computes estimate
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2. No director gate is invoked in any review mode
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3. Estimate is presented as advisory output only
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4. Skill notes: "Use this estimate in /sprint-plan when selecting stories for the next sprint"
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**Assertions:**
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- [ ] No director gate is invoked regardless of review mode
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- [ ] Output is purely informational — no approval or write prompt
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- [ ] Next-step recommendation references `/sprint-plan`
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- [ ] Estimate does not change based on review mode
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---
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## Protocol Compliance
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- [ ] Reads story file before estimating
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- [ ] Reads sprint velocity history when available
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- [ ] Produces effort range (S/M/L/XL), not a single number
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- [ ] Does not write any files
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- [ ] No director gates are invoked
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- [ ] Always produces an estimate (never blocked by missing data; uses defaults instead)
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---
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## Coverage Notes
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- The skill does not produce PASS/FAIL verdicts; the "verdict" here is the
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effort range itself. Test assertions focus on the accuracy of the range
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and the quality of the reasoning, not a binary outcome.
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- Team-specific velocity calibration (what "M" means for this team) is an
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implementation detail not tested here; it is configured via sprint history.
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